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Jobs, the economy, and circular logic
Mar. 8th, 2004 03:01 pmThought I'd share this quote:
OUT OF CONTEXT: SQUEEZING BLOOD FROM A TURNIP
"This is a different [hiring] cycle. To the extent that companies
can squeeze another drop of blood out of their existing work force,
they're doing it. Eventually you reach the point where there's no
more blood to be given, but we haven't reached it yet."
-- Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at economic
research firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez, as quoted by the New York Times
OK, now *somebody* has to be an end-user. A consumer. Funny enough, many of those consumers have or once had jobs at the companies now trying to avoid hiring any more people than they absolutely have to. I know, I know, they are in business to make money, not to be a utopian job-and-benefit-provider. Which is pretty much what the large grocery chains in SoCal have become. Anyway, these larger organizations aren't allowed by their stockholders to see the benefit in increased headcount. The stockholders want their dividends hiked *now*, please. And who are the biggest stockholders? The institutional investors who are responsible for, among other things, my 401(k). I want my investments to grow, but I'd rather have the entire economy grow, including overall employment. That really does raise all boats. (Yes, the rich get richer, but that is going to happpen no matter what the unemployment numbers are.)
A different economist, Alan Levenson, thinks that Productivity growth for 2004 will be 2.75%. That's how much more blood we're getting from each worker. He predicts corporate profits will be up about 15%. Read that again. 15%! My company is promising an average raise of 3.5% this year. Sigh. Oh yeah, Mr. Leverson forsees 1.5% core inflation too. The worst part is that I can't get all worked up and angry about the unrighteousness of it all, because I'm still damn happy just to have a job. Next Wednesday the 17th I'll have been here a year, which is longer than I've been employed anywhere since 1999.
And the bloody Girl Scout cookies are now $4/box. Sheesh. :-)
It's good to rant. While munching on Lemon Coolers. In a cubicle.
Really.
OUT OF CONTEXT: SQUEEZING BLOOD FROM A TURNIP
"This is a different [hiring] cycle. To the extent that companies
can squeeze another drop of blood out of their existing work force,
they're doing it. Eventually you reach the point where there's no
more blood to be given, but we haven't reached it yet."
-- Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at economic
research firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez, as quoted by the New York Times
OK, now *somebody* has to be an end-user. A consumer. Funny enough, many of those consumers have or once had jobs at the companies now trying to avoid hiring any more people than they absolutely have to. I know, I know, they are in business to make money, not to be a utopian job-and-benefit-provider. Which is pretty much what the large grocery chains in SoCal have become. Anyway, these larger organizations aren't allowed by their stockholders to see the benefit in increased headcount. The stockholders want their dividends hiked *now*, please. And who are the biggest stockholders? The institutional investors who are responsible for, among other things, my 401(k). I want my investments to grow, but I'd rather have the entire economy grow, including overall employment. That really does raise all boats. (Yes, the rich get richer, but that is going to happpen no matter what the unemployment numbers are.)
A different economist, Alan Levenson, thinks that Productivity growth for 2004 will be 2.75%. That's how much more blood we're getting from each worker. He predicts corporate profits will be up about 15%. Read that again. 15%! My company is promising an average raise of 3.5% this year. Sigh. Oh yeah, Mr. Leverson forsees 1.5% core inflation too. The worst part is that I can't get all worked up and angry about the unrighteousness of it all, because I'm still damn happy just to have a job. Next Wednesday the 17th I'll have been here a year, which is longer than I've been employed anywhere since 1999.
And the bloody Girl Scout cookies are now $4/box. Sheesh. :-)
It's good to rant. While munching on Lemon Coolers. In a cubicle.
Really.
